Troubleshoot AI Incidents With Hypotheses

Incident pressure The RAG assistant refuses 31 percent of policy questions with 'I do not know.' Six theories appear: model drift, prompt regression, vector outage, permissions, guardrail bug, and bad eval data. Without hypothesis discipline, the team will change too many variables and lose evidence. Effective troubleshooting Observe -> Hypothesize -> Test -> Treat Look at the symptom, form a testable cause hypothesis, run a low-risk test, then treat the confirmed cause while preserving notes. Panic path Toggle providers and prompts until something changes. The team narrows the incident instead of stirring it. Every incident theory should name the evidence…

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