Separate vivid project-specific evidence from base-rate evidence when forecasting.
A good story is not a good base rate. Name the repeated pattern Base rates reveal the recurring friction that teams forget because it is not exciting. Cross-functional projects often wait on review. Data projects often wait on definitions. Vendor projects often wait on access. The pattern matters because it repeats even when the current team feels unusually prepared. Sort evidence by causal strength Local evidence should move the forecast only when it changes the mechanism that created past overruns. A completed dependency, signed approval, or reduced scope can move the range. Energy, senior attention, and confidence usually should not…
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