Probe Before You Plan
Choose a safe-to-learn probe when the situation is complex rather than merely complicated.
The reframe: if the system is complex, the first useful action is a probe. Stop pretending every problem is analytical A complicated issue can be solved by expertise: compare vendors, inspect logs, calculate capacity. A complex issue changes as people react to it: customer trust, team morale, market response, cross-functional adoption. In complex work, more analysis may polish the wrong theory because the important evidence only appears when people encounter a real change. Design the probe A probe is not a vague experiment. It names the audience, the intervention, the duration, the success signal, and the safety boundary. It should…
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