Build a Range From Past Launches
Calculate a defensible range from comparable past launch durations.
Estimate a new onboarding launch. The inside-view task plan totals 19 working days. Five comparable launches took 21, 24, 31, 35, and 44 days. Reference class -> distribution -> causal adjustment -> three-point range The common shortcut is to add the task list and call 19 days the forecast. That ignores the planning fallacy and treats past launch friction as if it will not recur. Step 1 Choose the reference class: customer-facing onboarding launches with training and cross-functional review. This class matches the work's delay drivers better than all UI launches or all product projects. Step 2 Read the actual…
Sign up free — one personalized lesson every day, matched to your role and goals.
Already have an account? Sign in