Calibrate Your Prediction Intervals
Use past interval accuracy to calibrate future estimate ranges.
A range is a forecast claim, not just a cautious-looking format. Name the confidence level An 80 percent range and a rough range are not the same thing. When you name a confidence level, you create a testable claim. Over time, the actual result should land inside that interval at roughly the stated rate. Keep a miss log For each miss, write the driver: scope discovery, decision latency, vendor access, review loops, quality rework, or team capacity. Patterns in the miss log tell you which uncertainty your future ranges must include. Recalibrate the next estimate If actuals often exceed the…
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