Stage a Risky Pilot Like a Real Option
Use real-options logic to stage a capital project under high uncertainty.
The option moment The full build has negative static NPV, but a pilot could buy information and expansion rights. Real options are useful only when flexibility can be exercised. Real options Defer -> Learn -> Exercise A staged project is valuable when it limits downside while preserving a credible right to expand. Static NPV Approve or reject the full build today Capital follows evidence instead of hope. Option value comes from flexibility plus discipline, not from vague upside language. 01 Commit 02 Learn 03 Trigger Decision 1 The national facility has negative base-case NPV, but the market has high upside…
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