Use Cynefin to match the analysis style to the uncertainty type.
Cynefin is a sense-making framework for choosing the right decision method. Clear work needs a rule. Complicated work needs expert analysis. Complex work needs probes because the system changes as you act. Chaotic work needs stabilization before interpretation. The trap in data-driven work is assuming every metric movement is a complicated puzzle with one discoverable cause. Sometimes the honest answer is to run small, reversible tests and learn from movement.
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