Choose What to Test First
Prioritize assumptions by risk, uncertainty, and test cost before running an experiment.
Experiment choice Iris has executive attention and a promising AI assistant demo. The danger is mistaking build progress for learning. A first test should attack the load-bearing unknown, not decorate the idea. Validated learning Important + uncertain + cheap enough = test first The experiment sequence should follow risk, not enthusiasm. A test is valuable when it can change the decision. Demo Proves something can be shown. Evidence that changes continue, pivot, or stop. Learning is only validated when it can change the next investment. 01 List 02 Rank 03 Try it List assumptions What must be true?
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