The Churn Flag Needs a Base Rate
Apply base-rate reasoning before escalating a predictive churn flag.
The queue is red, but CSM time is scarce. What should Hana do before turning every churn flag into a call? Ask for the segment base rate and past precision, then prioritize flags with confirming second signals. Right. This turns a model flag into a probability-aware queue and protects scarce CSM time. Assign every red account to a CSM because a model flag is already a churn event. This confuses prediction with outcome and ignores false positives, especially when the base rate is low. Ignore the model because it cannot be perfect. Too dismissive. Imperfect signals can still be useful…
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