Commit to a specific test for the most fatal uncertain assumption in a current idea.
test the most fatal uncertain assumption in a current idea using first-principles thinking a current proposal where the team is tempted to keep planning instead of learning My assumption is: ___. If this is false, the idea should change because ___. The smallest credible test is ___. I will run it with ___ by ___. The evidence threshold is ___. If the threshold is not met, I will ___. In 2 days, check whether the test ran, what evidence appeared, and whether the next investment changed. A product idea where the riskiest belief is whether users will change behavior in…
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