Justify contingency using reference-class risk and range confidence.
Do not hide contingency. Explain it. Separate clean work from risk work The clean estimate describes the work if known steps proceed normally. Contingency describes expected variation around that work. Mixing the two creates distrust because nobody can tell whether the estimate is inflated or evidence-based. Use the reference class Find comparable work and look at the spread between planned and actual effort. If most projects overran because of compliance review, that review belongs in the range. If only one extreme project overran because of a strategy reset, that may belong outside ordinary contingency. Tie buffer to confidence A higher-confidence…
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