Use the Confidence Action Matrix

Evidence strength Social risk Low evidence High evidence Low risk High risk Frame carefully High evidence and high social risk Share the idea, but lead with the evidence, the uncertainty, and the specific help you want. Do not oversell. tl Pitch directly High evidence and low social risk Make the recommendation, show the proof, and ask for a decision or next test. tr Pre-test first Low evidence and high social risk Shrink the exposure. Get a private read, customer signal, or rough prototype before the public pitch. bl

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