Use Base Rates Before Stories

Stories tell you what could happen. Base rates tell you how often it tends to happen. Argument mapping treats an anecdote as evidence, not as the conclusion. The heuristics-and-biases tradition explains why that matters: available examples are easier to recall, and easy recall can be mistaken for frequency or probability. Socratic questioning brings the missing denominator back into the room. Ask what population the story belongs to, how many comparable cases exist, and how often the feared outcome followed. Map it Put the main claim at the top. Under it, add the reasons that support it, the evidence behind each…

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