Decision Walk: Covenant Pressure Before Close

The moment Close is 48 hours away. Forecast leverage is 3.96x against a 4.00x covenant, and a $7 million draw would push the calculation over the line. A covenant issue is a risk-management sequence, not a last-minute legal panic. Framework ISO 31000 risk sequence for covenant pressure Establish the agreement context, assess the headroom drivers, treat the risk with operating and financing moves, then communicate if residual risk remains material. Weak shortcut Debate the breach before confirming the definition and drivers. The recommendation becomes evidence-led instead of fear-led. Risk treatment is only credible after the risk has been defined and…

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