Decision Walk: Refinance Premortem

The moment A $55 million note matures in 13 months. The base plan assumes lender diligence starts in eight weeks and closes before summer. Plans fail at the hidden constraint, not at the slide title. Framework Premortem: assume failure, then name causes Instead of asking whether the plan is good, assume it failed. Then identify the most plausible causes and convert each one into mitigation. Optimism Ask only what has to go right. The plan gains early-warning triggers. Imagined failure is useful only when it becomes assigned preparation. 01 Failure 02 Cause 03 Mitigate Imagine failure Step 1

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