Quick Reference: Epi Curve Pattern Calls
Recall common epidemic-curve pattern interpretations and traps.
Pattern compare Point source or continuous source? Separate onset time from report time before calling the pattern. Objection The curve has one big peak, so we already know the source. Your line The curve narrows the exposure window; we still need exposure comparison to identify the source. Pattern recognition becomes source certainty. It preserves the curve as a hypothesis generator and keeps analytic comparison in play. Recall What does a propagated pattern often look like? Successive waves of cases, often separated by roughly one incubation period. Person-to-person spread can create waves rather than one tight shared-exposure peak. Trap What is…
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