Decision Walk: Should We Stop Early?
Evaluate an early positive result without confusing excitement or operational pressure for a valid stopping rule.
Early temptation The dashboard is bright green before the planned runtime ends. The organization wants the benefit now, but peeking rules were never defined. Check stopping rules before you trust a fast win. An early positive estimate is still part of the experimental design, not a special exemption from it. If the design did not anticipate early looks, excitement alone is not a stopping rule. Stopping rule Did the brief define an interim stopping rule or sequential design? Precision check There was no interim rule. What is the strongest next check? Integrity check You discover treatment users got a promo…
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