Quick Reference: The Hypothesis Checklist
Recall the minimum pieces of a strong experiment hypothesis and the common failure modes to avoid.
What must every experiment hypothesis name before launch? Segment, treatment, control baseline, primary metric, meaningful effect, and mechanism. If one is missing, the claim will drift during analysis. Which statement is a hypothesis and which is a hope? The hypothesis can lose; the hope only sounds persuasive. “We can choose the main metric after we see which one moves most.” Your line If we choose later, we are choosing the winner after seeing the race. The primary metric has to be declared before launch. It protects the control-versus-treatment comparison from hindsight and keeps the power plan anchored to one decision…
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