Write a Hypothesis That Can Be Wrong
Write an experiment hypothesis that states the change, expected mechanism, metric, and what would count as failure.
A testable hypothesis is a claim that can lose. Name the change and the metric Start with the treatment, the audience, and the primary outcome. If the metric is vague, the discussion will drift after the data arrives. Add the mechanism Explain why the treatment should work. The mechanism turns a guess into an experiment design. It tells you what diagnostic metrics belong in the readout and which users the claim actually concerns. Define the losing result Fisher's framing is still the discipline: the experiment exists to challenge the claim. State what result would count as no meaningful improvement versus…
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