Fermi Estimate Before the Spreadsheet
Build a Fermi estimate by decomposing a rough quantity into drivers, assumptions, and a sanity-check range.
Support requests three contractors to handle priority ticket overflow. You need a ten-minute estimate before the detailed staffing model is ready. Fermi estimation: decompose, estimate drivers, multiply, then sanity-check the range The common trap is asking how many contractors feel right. That hides the real drivers: ticket volume, time per ticket, productive hours, and existing spare capacity. Define the unit Estimate monthly priority-ticket workload, not total ticket count. The staffing decision depends on work hours, so the unit is hours of priority support demand. A Fermi estimate starts by choosing the quantity that connects to the decision. Tickets alone do…
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