Fermi-Size a Support Queue
Use a Fermi estimate to decompose support workload into drivers and compare capacity to demand.
Jae needs to justify whether a 640-ticket backlog is a staffing problem, a workflow problem, or both. Fermi estimation: break the unknown into rough drivers, calculate the order of magnitude, and inspect the largest assumption. The common trap is treating backlog size as proof of headcount need. A backlog tells you pressure exists; it does not reveal whether demand, handle time, rework, or available hours is the first lever. Set the unit Use support hours per month as the common unit. First-principles estimates need one unit that connects demand to capacity. Tickets, people, and backlog are not comparable until they…
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