Forecast a Range, Not a Wish
Build a three-point estimate that communicates uncertainty clearly.
One number usually hides three different estimates. Low is not fantasy The low end should describe the fastest plausible case under normal professional conditions. It is not the miracle path. It excludes luck you cannot defend. If your reference class has never completed under eight days, a five-day low estimate needs strong evidence. Likely is not a promise The most-likely number is the mode of the story you expect, not a commitment that reality owes you. It should include ordinary interruptions, review cycles, and handoffs. If every previous project had one review loop, the likely case should include one review…
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