Forecasting Debiasing Reference Deck
Recall when to use outside view, premortem, Fermi estimation, and base-rate checks in a forecast.
Objection This launch is different, so past launches are not relevant. Use when the team rejects reference-class data too quickly. Your line It may be different, but let's anchor on comparable launches first, then adjust for the differences we can name. Do not let uniqueness become permission to ignore the base rate. It uses outside-view discipline while leaving room for project-specific evidence. Compare Premortem vs. postmortem A premortem is strongest while the plan can still change. Fermi When should you use a Fermi estimate? Think plausibility before precision. Use it when you need a rough order-of-magnitude check before detailed data…
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