Treat AI Forecasts as Hypotheses, Not Orders
Use PDCA to review an AI forecast before changing supply chain actions.
The move: treat the forecast as a hypothesis with an owner, scope, metric, and review date. AI forecasts are seductive because they arrive as numbers. A number feels more objective than a planner's concern, especially when the dashboard ranks the top movers in bright colors. But a forecast is still a claim about future demand under assumptions. PDCA keeps the claim connected to operational learning. Plan the response Name the decision the forecast could change: buy, expedite, allocate, rebalance, or hold. Then narrow the scope. Which SKUs, locations, suppliers, and dates are actually in play? Planning also names the baseline.…
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