HEADCOUNT-PLANNING5 MIN READ
Estimate Hiring Lead Time With Three Points
Use three-point estimation to create a realistic hiring lead-time assumption.
A data engineering role is critical for an October launch. Recruiting says it could close in 45 days if the market responds well, 70 days is most likely, and 120 days is possible if the first slate fails. PERT expected estimate = (optimistic + 4 x most likely + pessimistic) / 6. The common trap is using the most comfortable number as the plan date. That makes the project dependent on the best behaved version of the labor market. Name the three points Optimistic = 45 days, most likely = 70 days, pessimistic = 120 days. The three points force…
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