Risk Cards for Headcount Plans
Recall practical risk tools for making headcount plans more resilient.
Premortem prompt The plan is already approved. Why revisit failure? Use when the room wants to skip risk review. Your line Because the cheapest time to find failure modes is before we commit spend. Let's spend 10 minutes imagining the plan failed and name the top two causes. Treating approval as proof that assumptions are safe. It makes dissent safe and time-boxed. Risk tools Premortem vs. scenario planning Premortem asks "why did this fail?" Scenario asks "what if the world changes?" Three-point recall Which three estimates make uncertainty visible? Optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic. Use them for hiring lead time,…
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