Write The Change Logic Before Metrics
Draft a theory-of-change chain that prevents metric shopping in impact diligence.
Build the change chain before choosing the dashboard. Capital Input What money, terms, governance rights, or expertise does the investor provide? Enterprise Activity What will the company do differently or at greater scale because of the investment? Output What immediate product, service, or access change occurs? Outputs are countable but often not enough. Outcome What changes for people or the planet? This is the core of the impact thesis. Assumptions And Risks Name what must be true. If the assumption fails, the metric can look busy while the outcome does not move.
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