Map Branches by Certainty and Impact

Certainty that branch explains the problem Low certainty High certainty Decision impact if true Low impact High impact Test next High impact - Low certainty This is the hypothesis-driven sweet spot. A quick evidence test can change the decision materially. tl Act or plan High impact - High certainty The branch already has enough support for action planning, mitigation, or ownership assignment. tr Park Low impact - Low certainty Interesting but not worth scarce analysis time unless new evidence raises its stakes. bl

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