Map Evidence Strength Vs Causal Confidence
Differentiate business evidence types by how much inferential and causal confidence they justify.
Causal confidence Inferential confidence Low High Q1 Low inferential · Low causal A noisy dashboard blip or tiny convenience survey. Useful for hypothesis generation only. Q2 High inferential · Low causal A broad, representative observational sample that supports population description but not strong mechanism claims. Q3 Low inferential · High causal A clean but narrow experiment or pilot that identifies cause better than it generalizes. Q4 High inferential · High causal The strongest zone: robust sample plus a design that supports causal attribution.
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