Predict the next consequence after the obvious immediate outcome.
The second bounce is where strategy lives First-principles floor The first consequence is usually easy to see because it is close in time and emotionally salient. The second consequence is delayed, social, and often more important. Inversion check Invert by asking how a smart person would exploit your decision if it became the norm. That exposes incentives faster than abstract risk language. Second-order view Use first principles to name the mechanism: money, time, attention, trust, or information. Then decide whether the delayed effect is acceptable.
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