Quick Reference: Floor, Failure, Fallout
Recall when to use first principles, inversion, and second-order thinking.
FFF What does Floor, Failure, Fallout stand for? Three prompts for live decisions Reasoning from analogy vs reasoning from first principles Use analogy as a starting hypothesis, not as proof. Objection: “We do not have time for mental models.” A rushed decision meeting Your line Give me 90 seconds for one failure check. If we cannot name a plausible failure, we move. Turning the model into a long philosophy detour. It makes the model bounded, practical, and in service of speed. What is the second-order question? And then what behavior or constraint does this create? Look for incentives, precedent, trust,…
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