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MENTAL-MODELS5 MIN READ

Walk the Incentive Change

Use second-order thinking to evaluate an incentive change before launch.

Workplace moment A clean metric is creating messy behavior. The cost is not the meeting. The cost is the chain of decisions the meeting starts. Mental-model stack Floor, Failure, Fallout Use first principles to find the floor, inversion to expose the easiest way to fail, and second-order thinking to inspect the delayed consequences. Shortcut copy the last playbook A choice that survives reality, not just preference. Reward the real outcome, not the easiest visible proxy. Floor First principles Backlog fell but quality complaints rose. What is the real job of the metric? Failure Inversion Managers learn the new reward. How…

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