Milestones Are Forecast Evidence
Update an estimate when milestone evidence contradicts the original plan.
Milestones are not decorations on a timeline. They are evidence gates. Treat the plan as a hypothesis A plan says, in effect, if these dependencies clear on these dates, the outcome range is plausible. When a dependency misses, the hypothesis has changed. Defending the old date without changing work design is just optimism in project language. Ask what the miss predicts Some misses are local. A delayed copy review may not affect launch if build work is independent. Other misses are structural. A delayed access approval may block testing, training, and data validation. The reference class helps distinguish inconvenience from…
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