Use a reference class before building an inside-view estimate.
The outside view is the estimate before the story. Start with the class A reference class is a set of past efforts similar enough to teach you something about this one. The class does not need to be perfect. It needs to be better than a blank page plus confidence. Choose by the driver that most affects duration or cost: same workflow, same dependency pattern, same review burden, same team shape, or same customer risk. Read the distribution Do not average and move on. Look at fastest, median, slowest, and the common reason work moved right. If five past launches…
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