Find the assumption that can flip the case
Identify and communicate the critical assumption that could change a business-case recommendation.
The CFO test The base case looks positive, but the approval depends on adoption, labor rate, and implementation cost. Only one of those may actually flip the case. Leaders need to know which assumption deserves attention. Sensitivity Base case -> stress test -> switching value Sensitivity analysis moves assumptions. Switching values tell you the point where the recommendation changes. Best/base/worst Often too broad to govern The risk discussion moves from anxiety to controllable assumptions. A sensitivity analysis is useful only if it changes how the case is governed. 01 Drivers 02 Switch 03 Govern List drivers Focus
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