Estimate heatwave downtime without fake precision
Build a decision-grade estimate of heat-related operational downtime using ranges and explicit assumptions.
A site needs to know whether heat protocols justify funding a pre-season cooling audit and shift redesign. The data is imperfect, but there are shift logs and cost records. Decision-grade range: knowns + assumptions + sensitivity + threshold The trap is to wait for perfect climate projections or to present one precise number with hidden assumptions. Both weaken trust. Known data Last summer: 11 heat-protocol days and 31 lost labor hours. Cost per lost hour, including overtime and SLA pressure, averaged about $1,800. Start with observed operating evidence. It grounds the estimate in site reality before adding future assumptions. Assumption…
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