Use scenarios to test decisions, not predict the future
Use climate scenarios to stress-test a decision through drivers, sensitivities, and actions.
2032 platform decision Jules has to help Product decide whether to invest in tooling for a high-emission material platform. The team asks for the most likely climate future. A single forecast hides the uncertainty that scenario analysis is designed to expose. NGFS scenario logic Decision -> Scenarios -> Drivers -> Sensitivities -> Actions Use scenarios as a stress test. Each scenario should change assumptions that matter to the decision, not just decorate the strategy deck. Pick a forecast False precision that creates fragile plans. The analysis changes the decision architecture rather than predicting one future. Scenario analysis is useful only…
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