Calculate Par From Demand, Not Hope
Calculate a basic cafe par level using average demand, lead time, and safety buffer.
Friday oat milk keeps running out before noon. Last four Friday usages were 17, 19, 18, and 18 cartons. The supplier delivers the next morning, and the manager wants a buffer for rush variation. Par = lead-time demand + safety buffer for predictable variation The common trap is ordering from memory: add a few cartons after a bad week, then cut back after a wasteful week, without a stable rule. Choose the high-impact item Focus on oat milk because it drives substitutions, refunds, and guest frustration more than most low-volume syrups. Pareto thinking says to start with the vital few…
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