Classify commodity trading decisions by uncertainty type and choose the right response mode.
The move: diagnose the decision context before choosing the tool. Cynefin is useful for trading because uncertainty is not one thing. A unit conversion error is not the same problem as competitor behavior. A model parameter is not the same problem as a port closure. If you treat all of them as "analysis", you will either move too slowly or with fake precision. Clear work needs standard checks. Complicated work needs expertise and analysis. Complex work needs small probes that reveal pattern. Chaotic work needs immediate stabilizing action, then sensing. The desk leader's job is to stop the category error.…
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