Use The Outside View On Growth
Apply reference-class forecasting to temper company-specific growth assumptions.
The move: forecast from the reference class before the company story. Equity research often rewards deep company knowledge, but deep company knowledge can also make the inside view too loud. The inside view says, "This management team, this product, this market." The outside view asks, "What happened to comparable companies facing similar conditions?" Reference-class forecasting gives you a distribution before you pick a point estimate. That matters because most aggressive forecasts are individually plausible. The error is not that any one assumption is absurd. The error is that every assumption gets adjusted in the favorable direction. Use this sequence: define…
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