Forecast From Drivers, Then Check
Apply PDCA to make a forecast update testable and reusable after actuals arrive.
You update same-store sales to 6% based on traffic up 2% and ticket up 4%. Actuals arrive at 4% because traffic was flat and ticket was up 4%. PDCA: Plan the driver, do the model update, check actuals against the driver, act by changing the process. The common trap is changing next quarter's forecast without recording which driver failed and why. Plan Same-store sales = traffic + ticket. Forecast: traffic +2%, ticket +4%. The plan states the drivers, so the error can later be located. Do Update revenue and margin with 6% same-store sales. The model change is tied to…
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