Premortem The Bull Case
Use a premortem to identify thesis-killing risks and monitoring indicators.
Pitch room Your Buy idea shows 28% upside. The CIO asks you to assume the call lost money six months from now and explain why. The request is not pessimism. It is a way to surface risks while the thesis is still editable. Premortem Assume failure, then diagnose causes Prospective hindsight makes hidden risks more speakable and more concrete. Generic risk Competition could increase Risk becomes a set of decision rules, not boilerplate. A premortem is useful only if it changes monitoring, sizing, or the thesis. 01 Failure 02 Cause 03 Monitor Make it concrete The team writes: "The call…
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