Recall valuation sanity checks using decision criteria and outside-view base rates.
Method fit DCF or multiple: which is the anchor? Use the method that best answers the economic question; use the other as a cross-check. Outside view What base-rate question should every aggressive margin forecast answer? How often have similar companies expanded margins this much from this scale? If the answer is rarely, the upside case needs exceptional evidence. Fragile upside The target price has 40% upside, but most of it comes from terminal multiple expansion. Use when the model looks attractive but the driver is not operational. Your check What operating evidence would make investors pay that terminal multiple, and…
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