Run the Confounding Check
Identify confounders that can make a marketing channel look more effective than it is.
A campaign launch and a sales lift occurred in the same week, but several other demand drivers changed too. Treatment, outcome, and common causes must be separated before making a causal claim. Before-after lift is seductive because the line goes up right after launch, but timing alone does not isolate the cause. Before Display launched Tuesday; sales rose 22%; display caused the lift. After Display launched during discount, PR, and inventory recovery; credited traffic rose, but causal lift is unresolved. Treatment Name the marketing action: incremental display spend launched Tuesday. A clear treatment keeps the analysis from blending multiple changes.…
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