Write the Incrementality Brief
Draft an incrementality test brief with a treatment, counterfactual, metric, population, and decision rule.
The retargeting report shows high credited ROAS, but the team needs to know whether additional spend creates incremental gross profit. Treatment + counterfactual + metric + population + decision rule Starting with "prove the campaign worked" invites cherry-picked metrics and post-hoc thresholds. Before Run retargeting for three weeks and compare attributed purchases to spend. After Randomly hold out 15% of eligible visitors, compare gross profit per eligible visitor, and scale only if iROAS clears 1.5x. Treatment Define exactly what changes: retargeting ads are shown to eligible visitors in treatment and suppressed for holdout. Causal claims need a manipulable action, not…
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