Decompose baseline and incremental sales

Explain a modeled quarter with $10M in sales: $7.2M baseline, $1.8M paid media contribution, and $1.0M promotion contribution. Contribution decomposition separates persistent demand, non-media factors, and incremental media lift so budget decisions do not over-credit or under-credit marketing. The common trap is to let baseline sound like an unexplained leftover or to imply that baseline sales happen without marketing history, product, brand, distribution, or pricing context. Total outcome Start with total modeled sales: $10.0M for the quarter. The decomposition should add back to the business outcome stakeholders recognize. Baseline $7.2M is modeled baseline, or 72 percent of sales. Baseline reflects…

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