Separate media, controls, and market state
Classify MMM inputs into decision levers, control variables, and diagnostic context before modeling.
The move: classify every candidate input by the job it plays in the causal story. Media levers These are variables the budget decision can move: spend, impressions, reach, GRPs, clicks, or exposures. They should map to channels in a way stakeholders can actually reallocate. Controls Controls are non-media forces that move the outcome. They protect the media estimates from taking credit for price changes, holidays, promotions, distribution shocks, macro shifts, or stockouts. Diagnostics Diagnostics explain the story but may not belong in the model. Branded search, site visits, or awareness can be outcomes of marketing. Treating them as controls can…
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