Why MMM needs a causal story
Explain why causal structure and confounding matter when interpreting MMM coefficients.
The move: interpret MMM through a causal story, not through coefficients alone. Ask what triggers the media Media is rarely assigned at random. Teams spend more in big markets, during launches, near holidays, or when demand is already rising. Those triggers can confound the estimate. Ask what else moves the outcome Price, product availability, competitor moves, seasonality, and macro demand can all move sales. The model needs a defensible plan for these forces or media may inherit their credit. Ask what sits downstream Some variables are effects of marketing, not clean controls. If you control for them, you may erase…
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