Ask what belief the chart creates
Evaluate a chart by the conclusion it makes easy for a viewer to believe.
Cairo's practical test: what belief does this chart make easy? A chart is an argument with visual evidence. It directs attention, compresses detail, and invites a sentence in the viewer's head. That sentence may be stronger than the data supports. The Three Belief Checks First, write the likely viewer sentence: "X caused Y," "the problem is fixed," "Team A is outperforming Team B." Second, ask whether the chart actually shows enough evidence for that sentence. Third, ask what relevant context is missing: baseline, denominator, uncertainty, time window, segment split, or alternative explanation. Tufte's lie factor is a scale check. Cairo's…
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