Compute a drift alert without overreacting
Apply control-limit thinking to a feature drift signal and choose the right follow-up.
A ranking feature mean moved from 0.42 yesterday to 0.49 today. You need to decide whether this is unusual enough to investigate. Baseline center + variation limit + impact check The common shortcut is to alert on percentage movement alone. That ignores normal variation, seasonality, and the cost of false alarms. Choose baseline Use the last four comparable weekdays, not the previous day only. Baseline mean = 0.43. Comparable windows reduce false alarms from ordinary weekday and campaign patterns. Estimate variation Baseline standard deviation = 0.015. A 3-sigma upper limit is 0.43 + (3 * 0.015) = 0.475. The limit…
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